Impact of Climate Change on Surface Runoff for Myponga Reservoir Catchment in South Australia, Australia

نویسندگان

چکیده

Aims: This paper is aimed to assess the future impact of climate change on some selected climatic variables and surface runoff from Myponga catchment, South Australia.
 Methodology: The six global models recommended for Australia were compared among each other based their performance simulate observed climates in study area. monthly average statistically downscaled evapotranspiration rainfall data period 2000-2005 with respective data, graphically statistically. On hand, four hydrological Australian rainfall-runoff library (RRL) evaluated simulating Then, two GCMS, CanESM2 MIROC5, one model, AWBM, better used projections simulation both base (1990-2005) (2026-2035) under emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5), respectively. Finally, impacts estimated by comparing long year’s values simulated periods different percentile (10th, 50th, 99th) scenarios.
 Results: result showed that (1990-2005), 2030s (2026-2035), models, scenarios, all percentiles, annual would generally increase, but decrease. patterns across model scenarios. But, average, percentage changes show a rise range 3.72 5.47 % percentiles intermediate scenario decline 17.13 20.15 high scenario. 
 Conclusion: It expected 2030 there be no significant problem respect water availability, drought, flooding at an time scale drier conditions catchment relative scenario.
 Recommendation: Therefore, adaptation mitigation measures should identified applied national state levels minimize possible negative reservoir catchment.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Enviornment and Climate Change

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['2581-8627']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2023/v13i92390